The opposite is when a team posts an OYPP in the singleĭigits. But I can't give all of my best tricks away!Īn OYPP of 30.0 signifies that a team could move the ball well but just couldn't generate points. Several other filters and qualifiers can be added to this system to increase its effectiveness. Percent ATS success rate and a simple two-game progressive chase system can be used to produce a hearty profit. Teams that didn't cover the spread in the outing immediately following their game of 30.0 OYPP or higher beat the spread their next game. Over the last four seasons teams have gone 94-62 against the spread (60.3 percent) the week following an OYPP of 30.0 or higher. So here is our first YPP system: bet on any team against the spread after a game in which they post an OYPP of 30.0 or higher. Spread the next week based on their poor performance and it is the perfect storm for a gambling gambit. Couple basic statistical regression with the fact that sportsbooks will likely over- or under-adjust the team's But, like we saw with Green Bay, it also sets them up for aīounce-back effort the following week.
Teams with an OYPP of 30.0 or more overwhelmingly lose the game both straight up and ATS. But for some reason keep sabotaging themselves and just can't put the ball in the end zone. We've all seen those games: a team is marching up and down theįield between the 20s at will. But here are three specific systems where you can use itĪn OYPP of 30.0 or higher is a massive statistical outlier - roughly double the NFL average. That is one small example of how Yards Per Point can be a useful tool in the handicapping arsenal. They beat Tampa Bay by 17 points and covered the spreadīuffalo, on the other hand, went to Oakland the next Sunday as a seven-point favorite. But you could see that their 25.6 YPP was nearly double their season average (12.9) andĬonfidently predict Green Bay's play would regress back to its mean the following week. No one could forecast Green Bay's misadventures in Orchard Park. But they won (and covered the spread) due to a confluence of random incidents that couldn't be predicted and How? Because Buffalo blocked a field goal, scored a safety, grabbed two interceptions and returned a punt 75 yards for a The playoff-bound Packers, 3.5-point road favorites, outgained the Bills by 80 yards But it does so in a broader,Ĭonsider the Green Bay-Buffalo game in Week 15 last December. And their impact outweighs their frequency. Special teams touchdowns, crippling red zone turnovers and failed fourth-down attempts can be game-changing events. YPP'sīrilliance is that it accounts for the randomness and volatility of a football game by completely ignoring it. Yards Per Point is ruthlessly blunt and shockingly efficient, like the power run Pete Carroll should have called in the Super Bowls final seconds. So if a team gained 432 total yards and scored 27 points then they have a Yards Per Point of 16.0. To calculate OYPP you simply take the number of total yards a team gained andĭivide it by the number of points they scored. Offensive Yards Per Point is a fundamental and critical stat for NFL bettors. I'm here to share one of these crucial stats and explain how wielding it can be the difference between harnessing the chaos and
So while football may be a monocracy, the immutable laws of mathematics govern it and several foundational statistics hold Yet here we are,Īgain, waging our personal wars with Fate and Reason in an attempt to produce that beautiful profit. Gamblers, who willingly risk our cash and sanity each week trying to predict these savage games? We must be fools to bet on football. And if the mutants that make up the NFL show a stunning lack of self-preservation then what does it say about We, The It's a bizarre sport and senseless entertainment that has become a pillar of our national consciousnessĬhaos reigns in this great nation. Pituitary glands mauling and maiming one another. It's a weekly ritual of violence and speed featuring carbon-fiber-clad sociopaths with hyperactive The National Football League is state-sanctioned chaos.
0 kommentar(er)
